Forecasters: Above-Average Hurricane Season Expected
April 6, 2011
By WeatherBug Sr. Meteorologist, James West
Another active hurricane season is on tap for Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico this summer and fall, so says a renowned hurricane forecast team today. The chances of a hurricane hitting the U.S. are significant.
The Colorado State University tropical forecast team first hurricane prediction of the year, issued April 6, calls for 16 tropical storms to form in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, nine of them becoming hurricanes and five growing into major hurricanes will winds in excess of 111 mph. The 50-year average is 9.6 storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.
The Atlantic Hurricane Basin consists of the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 every year. The historical height of the Atlantic hurricane season runs from mid-August to early October. However, tropical systems can form at any time during the season.
Driving the above-average forecast is "a favorable multi-decadal period for enhanced Atlantic Basin hurricane activity, which is expected to continue for the next 10-15 years or so," said Dr. William Gray of the team. Other expected contributors include above-normal warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and no expected El Nino or La Nino.
The Colorado State team is predicting that there will be a 72 percent chance of the U.S. coastline being hit by a major 111 mph-plus wind hurricane. There is a 61 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean.
Important Information
Each year fire claims the lives of 3,500 Americans, injures 20,000, and causes billions of dollars worth of damage. People living in rural areas are more than twice as likely to die in a fire than those living in mid-sized cities or suburban areas. The misuse of wood stoves, portable space heaters and kerosene heaters are especially common risks in rural areas.
The United States Fire Administration (USFA) believes rural fire problems can be reduced by teaching people to recognize the hazards. By following some of the outlined precautionary steps, individuals can greatly reduce their chances of becoming a fire casualty.
Wood Stoves
Wood stoves cause over 4,000 residential fires every year. Carefully follow the manufacturer's installation and maintenance instructions. Look for solid construction, such as plate steel or cast iron metal. Check for cracks and inspect legs, hinges and door seals for smooth joints and seams. Use only seasoned wood for fuel, not green wood, artificial logs, or trash. Inspect and clean your pipes and chimneys annually and check monthly for damage or obstructions. Be sure to keep combustible objects at least three feet away from your wood stove.
Electric Space Heaters
Buy only heaters evaluated by a nationally recognized laboratory, such as Underwriters Laboratories (UL). Check to make sure it has a thermostat control mechanism, and will switch off automatically if the heater falls over. Heaters are not dryers or tables; don't dry clothes or store objects on top of your heater. Space heaters need space; keep combustibles at least three feet away from each heater. Always unplug your electric space heater when not in use.
Kerosene Heaters
Buy only heaters evaluated by a nationally recognized laboratory, such as Underwriters Laboratories (UL), and check with your local fire department on the legality of kerosene heater use in your community. Never fill your heater with gasoline or camp stove fuel; both flare-up easily. Only use crystal clear K-1 kerosene. Never overfill any portable heater. Use the kerosene heater in a well ventilated room.
Fireplaces
Fireplaces regularly build up creosote in their chimneys. They need to be cleaned out frequently and chimneys should be inspected for obstructions and cracks to prevent deadly chimney and roof fires. Check to make sure the damper is open before starting any fire. Never burn trash, paper or green wood in your fireplace. These materials cause heavy creosote buildup and are difficult to control. Use a screen heavy enough to stop rolling logs and big enough to cover the entire opening of the fireplace to catch flying sparks. Don't wear loose-fitting clothes near any open flame. Make sure the fire is completely out before leaving the house or going to bed. Store cooled ashes in a tightly sealed metal container outside the home.
Finally, having a working smoke alarm dramatically increases your chances of surviving a fire. And remember to practice a home escape plan frequently with your family.
Bring T-Gator to Your School
The Louisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (LOHSEP) has developed a program called “Get a Game Plan” to reach Louisiana citizens, businesses, and even our children, to help us be prepared in the event of an emergency.
GOHSEP has reached out to each parish with an active Citizen Corps program, and Tangipahoa Parish is included. The Tangipahoa Parish Citizen Corps is presenting a children’s version of the “Get a Game Plan” program to schools in the parish, with T-Gator as the mascot. Any school may request the program, which has been a big hit so far. The organization has made presentations at Independence Head Start, Holy Ghost Catholic School, and the Tangipahoa Economic Development Foundation luncheon.
For more information or to request the program at your school, please contact Vickie Travis at (985) 748-3211.
